Description: The United States Geological Surv ey USGS released the latest version of its National Seismic Hazard Maps NSHM in April 2008. The maps, which were last updated in 2002, define the latest scientific view of earthquake hazard at varying probability levels across the United States.

Description: This session 15 PD of the Toronto Spring Meeting includes an update on specific approaches adopted by Canadian insurers and regulators to deal with capital guarantees on segregated fund products, capital modeling in the Canadian banking industry, and emerging issues using these techniques in the U.S. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 27, No. 2, Session

Description: Easy access computing power is harnessed to approximate ruin probabilities. The dynamics of the traditional insurance model are stated in the form of period to period constraints. This allows the development of a life-table with the survival probabilities for a given set of parameters. Given the spreadsheet approach of the model, sensitivity analysis to study the impact of different parameter values and loss variable distributions can be easily implemented.

Description: This article talks about the role that models played in the subprime meltdown and the subsequent crisis in the financial markets in general. The models failed to provide information about the magnitude of potential 'black swans'. Extreme Value Theory [EVT] is described as a potential solution to this error.

Description: We find the necessary and sufficient conditions for fitting five given moments by a triatomic distribution. We consider three examples drawn from fire large spread, individual life medium spread and group life small spread insurance data, fit them with triatomics, and compute the ruin probabilities using well known formulas for discrete and for combination of exponentials claim amounts. We then compare our approximations with the exact values that appeared in the literature.

Description: This is the second of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: Back in the day, when data was scarce and computers were slow, actuaries were forced to use simple methods to account for risk. By far, the most common method was to add a margin, usually 5% to a “best estimate” calculation. Remarkedly, this method still works quite well in the aggregate. The problem is that, in many cases, decisions today require a more in-depth analysis. For example, how big a risk is a health plan really taking if it lowers its premiums by 10% to attract more members? This session will discuss techniques for measuring risk in today’s environment. Speakers will also share the results from the 5/50 research project, which forms the foundation for the techniques.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. In this paper, a multivariate quasi-negative binomial distribution is proposed to model frequency dependence among different risk types. The operational risk diversification effect is illustrated through frequency dependency modeled by the bivariate quasi-negative binomial distribution under a framework of Monte Carlo simulation.

Description: This panel discussion session focused on the practical applications of risk theory.

Description: This is the first of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.